2014 medal projections: Medal count

Updated Jan. 14Jan. 21 and Feb. 5

The projected medal count for the 2014 Olympics. It’ll change with injuries, form, whims, etc.

COUNTRYGoldSilverBronzeTOTAL
Norway14131239
United States1561435
Canada10101030
Russia681226
Germany810523
Austria511622
South Korea57315
Netherlands56314
France52512
Switzerland52411
Sweden53210
Italy1247
Japan2237
China4116
Czech Republic2226
Slovenia1225
Britain0235
Australia1214
Poland1304
Belarus1203
Finland0123
Kazakhstan1102
Latvia1012
Ukraine0022
Liechtenstein0011

* – Corrected Feb. 9 — one Austrian skier had been mistakenly attributed to Switzerland. Well, they’re close, right?

If you want to see how it breaks down per sport, we have an app for that. I mean, a sport-by-sport breakdown page.

You probably want more detail. You may even want to sound off and give your opinion or pass along a bit of information that might have slipped through the cracks, like someone’s failure to qualify from a brutal selection process (South Korea’s short-track speedskating team springs to mind) or a new injury. So please read these posts and share your thoughts.

  • Medal projections: Stats vs. subjectivity Can we really come up with a statistical model for projecting Olympic medals? I’ve often joked that I want to be the Nate Silver of Olympic medal projections. But Nate knows a lot more about stats than I do — I never took a single class in the subject, and I just hack my way through ...
  • Olympic medals: The host-nation bounce is real Olympic stats wizard Bill Mallon has quantified the host-nation bounce, showing that the country that last hosted the Olympics can typically expect to win roughly 70% of the medals it won at home. The genius of this analysis is that it factors out the growth of the Games (particularly winter) by analyzing the medal count in ...
  • 2014 medal projections: Some excruciating details How did the Olympic results compare with all the things we could use to predict them? Glad you asked: And this: Basically, I’m comparing three different types of results: 1. Majors: How skiers fared in the last Olympics and the last two World Championships. The number in “Majors” is a median — it ignores any null results, and the 2013 ...
  • Where the Olympic medals came from and went The biggest differences between the Sochi medal projections and the Sochi medal count were: USA – Speedskating: Projected 7, got 0. In the other direction, there’s sliding sports: Projected 3, got 7. Norway – Cross-country skiing: Projected 18, got 11. Also biathlon: Projected 12, got 6. Netherlands – Speedskating: Projected 14, got 23. The only other projected or ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 23 The 50k cross-country race turned into a microcosm of the Olympics — a big pack going around most of the way, then Russia blasting away from everyone at the end. For the last couple of days, we’ve figured no country would get more than 30 medals. With that cross-country sweep, Russia wound up with 33. We’ll wrap ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 22 Unless Alexander Zubkov crashes on his home track and Norway sweeps the 50k cross-country race on Sunday, Russia will be the first host country to finish atop the medal count since … Norway, in 1994. If you prefer following gold medal counts to overall medal counts, you’re no fun, and possibly a little pedantic. But the ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 21 Justin Reiter, a nation’s hopes are in your hands. Who? He’s a snowboarder who does parallel events, which we in the USA don’t follow or fund to the same extent we follow and fund halfpipe, slopestyle and various X Games-ish things. Reiter actually needs another $12,000 and change to fund his Sochi excursion. How unknown is he? “Walking ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 19 All in the family today, with unique pairs of siblings and spouses in action: – Siblings Anatasiya Kuzmina (Slovakia) and Anton Shipulin (Russia) competed against each other in the first Olympic biathlon mixed relay, and their teams finished 0.3 seconds apart — Russia fifth, Slovakia sixth. – American-born snowboarder Vic Wild won parallel giant slalom gold for ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 17 Where, exactly, did Canada get the impression we’re out to get them? I’ll admit my bias up front — my life has been immeasurably enriched by many Canadians. I grew up listening to Rush. Now, I also listen to semi-Canadian band Metric. I love hockey and curling. I watched Kids in the Hall, and my beloved Saturday Night ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 16 The USA and Norway made up for missteps elsewhere with Alpine skiing medals, the biathlon was postponed, and the Netherlands have produced a lot of really good speedskaters. CURRENT PACE Original projections: Norway 39, USA 35, Canada 30, Russia 26, Germany 23, Austria 22, South Korea 15, Netherlands 14, France 12, Switzerland 11, Sweden 10 If the rest of ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 14 Call them the Parity Games. We’re nearly at the halfway point, and instead of wondering if anyone would approach the USA’s record of 37 medals, we’re wondering if anyone would break 30. So many new events, so many different countries winning. (OK, fine — you can also say it’s because the Netherlands are winning all the ...
  • Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 13 Anyone else beginning to think US Speedskating’s super suits aren’t so super? Apparently. And speedskating is the event responsible for the biggest changes from the original projections. It accounts for most of the USA’s drop, and it accounts for the Netherlands’ lofty rank in the medal table. Here’s how things are shaping up … CURRENT PACE Original projections: Norway 39, ...

 

4 Responses to 2014 medal projections: Medal count

  1. the realist says:

    USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
    Go Hawks

  2. Glenda says:

    Your prediction belies your handle. lol – Hope USA does well, Canada should also do well. Go Leafs

  3. Jochen Kerber says:

    Wow!
    Go, Austria, go!!

  4. Pingback: Canada will reign supreme at Sochi (according to some very unusual math) - Canada, Sports - Macleans.ca

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