Did the World Track and Field Championships shake up the medal projections at all? Oh yes. The original posts are here: men’s running, women’s running, field events.

The results that matter in 2011: World Championships and top performances.

Changes are in bold italic.

MEN

100 meters: We won’t hold Usain Bolt’s false start against him. If anything, Jamaican gold just seems that more likely. Maybe even gold/silver. Jamaica, Jamaica, USA

4×100 relay: The USA and Britain collided at Worlds, adding to a long series of relay mishaps that make this event more difficult to predict. Until we see that someone else is actually faster, we’re not changing the projection. Jamaica, USA, Britain

200: The track and wind in Daegu didn’t lend themselves to a lot of fast times, but this race was an exception — the top three times of the year were posted in the final. We’ll go with that. Jamaica, USA, France

400: Where have all the U.S. quarter-milers gone? Only one, LaShawn Merritt, made the final at Worlds, and he’s still fighting for Olympic eligibility. And he was run down at the line by the new 2012 favorite, Grenadan teenager Kirani James. Belgium’s Borlee brothers are making a European medal here more likely as well. Grenada, USA, Jamaica

4×400: Still enough depth for the USA to win here, especially when the hurdlers are pulled into the pool, though Merritt needed to pull off some last-leg heroics to take gold at Worlds. Hard to explain how South Africa finished second. Britain was flat-out disappointing, which is why Russia will take their spot in the projections. USA, Jamaica, Russia

800: Kenya’s David Rudisha is simply the master, with Sudan’s Abubaker Kaki the only guy within range of catching him. Third place is wide-open, with the USA’s Nick Symmonds in the mix, but we’ll stick with the original projections. Kenya, Sudan, Kenya

1,500: The results at Worlds matched the original projection of Kenya, Kenya, USA. Matthew Centrowitz, who is far down on the list of top times, wasn’t the American runner I had in mind, but it shows that the U.S. runners can get in there in a sprint finish. No change. Kenya, Kenya, USA

5,000: As predicted, we had an Ethiopia-Kenya-Ethiopia finish. They just happened to finish 3-4-5 while Britain’s Mo Farah held off the USA’s Bernard Lagat in a thriller. And we’re changing the projections to match what happened at Worlds. Britain, USA, Ethiopia

10,000: Another classic finish here, with Farah barely failing to complete the 5,000/10,000 double. Olympic champion Kenenisa Bekele didn’t finish; his fellow Ethiopians took gold and bronze. In retrospect, projecting the USA for bronze here may have been a stretch. The U.S. runners won’t be far behind, but they’re not quite as likely as Farah to interrupt the procession of Ethiopian and Kenyan medalists. Ethiopia, Britain, Kenya

Marathon: The World Championships don’t draw the best runners. Not changing the projections. Kenya, Kenya, Kenya

Steeplechase: World Championship results matched the projections, and other 2011 results don’t give any reason to change. Kenya, Kenya, France

110 hurdles: David Oliver curiously fell out of form this summer and had an abysmal start in the final at Worlds. Then came the controversy — Cuba’s Dayron Robles was disqualified for interfering with China’s resurgent Liu Xiang. Unheralded American Jason Richardson, who posted a couple of other sub-13.1 times this summer, was the surprise winner. So it’s the USA, China and Cuba, but in what order? USA, Cuba, China

400 hurdles: The USA has three of the top five on the times list and six of the top 10. Their results at Worlds? Sixth and seventh. That’s a head-scratcher. We’ll have to take down the projection of a U.S. sweep and add world champion David Greene of Britain and South African L.J. Van Zyl, who isn’t the only South African in the top five. A USA-South Africa duel? What kind of event is this? Britain, South Africa, USA

20k walk: Top list: China, China, China, Russia, Russia, Russia. Worlds: Russia, Russia, Colombia, China, Russia. Russia, China, Russia

50k walk: More China and Russia, but Australia got two of the top five at Worlds. Russia, China, Australia

High jump: Jesse Williams (USA) held off a gaggle of talented Russians for the world title and top mark in the world. We’ll flip the projection accordingly. USA, Russia, Russia

Pole vault: At this point, it may only be sentimentality that has me believing Australia’s Steven Hooker is going to regain his form. The World final was wide-open, with Poland’s Pawel Wojciechowski edging the rapidly improving Cuban Lazaro Borges. France’s consistent Renaud Lavillenie was third ahead of another Polish vaulter, Lukasz Michalski, and German Malte Mohr. France, Poland, Cuba

Long jump: In the year 3012, the bionically and cryogenically preserved Dwight Phillips will rise from his box and win yet another gold medal. The American vet is the world champion once again, even though Australia’s Mitchell Watt had four of the year’s five best. Third at the moment is Zimbabwe’s Ngonidzashe Makusha. USA, Australia, Zimbabwe

Triple jump: There I was, watching the usual assortments of Europeans and Cubans contesting the world title, and then these two young Americans turned up and blew everyone away. Well, not quite — Christian Taylor and Will Claye took gold and bronze, surrounding Britain’s Phillips Idowu. Recalculating … USA, Britain, France

Shot put: Surely the USA couldn’t be shut out in this event at Worlds AND the Olympics. Germany’s David Storl came up with a personal best to win the world title ahead of reliable Canadian Dylan Armstrong, Belarus’s Andrei Mikhnevich and all four Americans. Germany, Canada, USA

Discus: Germany’s Robert Harting is the most consistent thrower in the world these days, so his world title is no surprise. Olympic champion Gerd Kanter of Estonia hasn’t had as many big throws but came on strong for second at Worlds. Poland’s Piotr Malachowski faltered in Daegu, leaving the door open for surprise bronze medalist Ehsan Hadadi of Iran. Hungary’s Zoltan Kavago posted the top mark in the world this year but didn’t even make the final in Daegu. So we’ll switch the top two and slide Kanter into bronze position. Germany, Poland, Estonia

Hammer: Japan’s Koji Murofushi didn’t throw much this year but came up big at Worlds. He briefly had a medal from the 2008 Games when two Belarus throwers were stripped after a doping test, but the Belarus crew got the medals back on appeal. Hungary’s Krisztian Pars, in the same boat as Murofushi as a temporary 2008 medalist, finished second at Worlds and has a lot of the world’s best throws this year. So does Russia’s Aleksey Zagornyi, who wasn’t in Daegu. Japan, Hungary, Russia

Javelin: Yes, Norway’s beautifully named Andreas Thorkildsen only finished second in Daegu. He’s still our favorite. And the throwers who accounted for the next two countries in the projections — Finland’s Tero Pitkämäki and Germany’s Matthias de Zordo — handed Thorkildsen rare losses in Shanghai and Daegu. But we’ll need to switch Finland and Germany because de Zordo won in Daegu, had a better season, and is still relatively young. Norway, Germany, Finland

Decathlon: 1-2 USA finish in Daegu, and Bryan Clay wasn’t even there. Trey Hardee and youngster Ashton Eaton did the honors ahead of consistent Cuban Leonel Suarez. USA, USA, Cuba

WOMEN

100: We’ll switch the top two because Carmelita Jeter is in awesome form, with Jamaican veteran Veronica Campbell-Brown right behind. Third place is tough call — USA’s Marshevet Myers, Trinidad and Tobago’s Kelly-Ann Baptiste, Jamaica’s Kerron Stewart and Jamaica’s Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce Hyphen-Overkill all in the mix. USA, Jamaica, Jamaica

4×100: Projection: USA, Jamaica, Ukraine. Finish at Worlds: USA, Jamaica, Ukraine. Sure, Trinidad and Tobago was a close fourth, but there’s not reason to change now. USA, Jamaica, Ukraine

200: Doing the “double” is difficult, as the USA’s Jeter and Allyson Felix can attest after losing to Campbell-Brown in Daegu. Jeter, who won the 100, was second. Then came Felix, who was second in the 400. The USA is very deep — Shalonda Solomon posted the year’s best time but finished fourth at Worlds. Because any of those three can win, the projection is unchanged. USA, Jamaica, USA

400: Botswana’s Amantle Montsho didn’t quite come from nowhere — she has posted several sub-50 times over the years — but her win at Worlds is still a bit of a surprise. And a thriller, beating Felix by 0.03 seconds. Fellow American and defending world champ Sanya Richards-Ross managed to find her sub-50 form once this year, but not in Daegu. A pair of Russians went sub-50 in Russia, with Anastasiya Kapachinskaya leading the world with a 49.35 and coming close to the 50 mark to take bronze in Daegu. Defending champion Christine Ohuruogu of Britain was a victim of the false-start rule and could be a wild card on home soil. The projections again give the USA credit for having more than one contender. USA, Russia, Botswana

4×400: Jamaica set a national record but still couldn’t run down the USA even with an unnerving late fade. They did, however, put some distance on Russia, so we’ll switch those two. USA, Jamaica, Russia

800: Russia’s Mariya Savinova and South Africa’s Carter Semenya had a terrific duel in Daegu, posting the top two times of the year. Russia has the deepest talent here, but the USA has a couple of decent contenders along with the occasional threat from Kenya or Jamaica. Russia, South Africa, Kenya

1,500: The stats tell us 21 women ran this distance faster than the USA’s Jennifer Simpson this year. In Daegu, no one did. While all the African runners botched the tactics, going much too slowly through 1,400 meters or so, Simpson and Britain’s accurately named Hannah England blasted through at the finish. Then came Spain’s Natalia Rodriguez, who at least posted one time in the top 10 this year. Surely they won’t make such a mess of things in London, right? This event is simply beyond prediction. Therefore, the projections are unchanged. Kenya, Bahrain, USA

5,000: That’s more like it. The expected Kenya-Ethiopia duel materialized, with Kenya’s peerless Vivian Cheruiyot winning the world title and posting the best time this year. No change. Kenya, Ethiopia, Kenya

10,000: Cheruiyot did the double, leading a Kenyan sweep of the top four places. The times list shows a couple of challengers from Ethiopia and Japan, along with a couple of credible contenders from the USA, including 2008 bronze medalist Shalane Flanagan. But Kenya’s depth is forcing a few changes. Kenya, Kenya, Ethiopia

Marathon: Again, the World Championships aren’t the best gauge for this distance, but the Kenyan sweep mirrored what happened on the rest of the world scene this year. Kenya, Ethiopia, Kenya

Steeplechase: Finally, the Kenyan logjam is broken — Russia’s Yuliya Zaripova won in Daegu with the best time of 2011, and Tunisia’s Habiba Ghribi set a national record to finish second. Then came the three Kenyans. Zaripova’s win is enough for us to flip the projections. Russia, Kenya, Kenya

100 hurdles: Forget the talk of a North American sweep unless something happens to Australian world champ Sally Pearson. The Americans have the depth to contend even if Lolo Jones can’t regain her form, but they’re far behind Pearson. Australia, USA, USA

400 hurdles: Fantastic year for the USA’s Lashinda Demus, edging defending champion Melaine Walker of Jamaica for the world title in the year’s fastest race. Russia’s Natalya Antyukh finished third to make this another event in which the 2012 projection came true in 2011. Jamaica’s Kaliese Spencer has posted several fast times, but with mild trepidation, the projection is unchanged. USA, Jamaica, Russia

20k walk: China has replaced Portugal as the country most likely to prevent a Russian sweep. Hong Liu did just that in Daegu. Russia, Russia, China

High jump: The long-standing top two of Croatia’s Blanka Vlašić and the USA’s Chaunte Lowe had an off year. Vlašić was injured and nearly missed Worlds — then came back to finish second, anyway. Lowe is on her way back after childbirth. Such a comeback is never a given, but let’s put some faith in Lowe and leave the top two unchanged. World champ Anna Chicherova had a good enough year to change the bronze medal projection. Italian Antonietta Di Martino is the only other jumper over two meters this year. Croatia, USA, Russia

Pole vault: Another case of wondering if the top two can come back. Yelena Isinbayeva has the top 11 jumps in history but hasn’t reached such heights since returning from some time off. The USA’s Jennifer Suhr is more erratic, splitting the next several jumps on the all-time list with Isinbayeva and posting the best this year but missing the podium in Daegu. That left a bronze medal space for Russian veteran Svetlana Feofanova. German Martina Strutz set a national record to take silver, and Brazilian Fabiana Murer equalled her national record for the gold. So the results in Daegu make this a nervous projection, but it’s unchanged. Russia, USA, Brazil

Long jump: The USA’s Brittney Reese turned back the Russian revolution with her second straight world title. Another flip forthcoming. USA, Russia, Russia

Triple jump: Ukraine’s Olha Saladuha won the world title. Host Britain will have a contender in roundabout fashion — Yamile Aldama left Cuba in 2001 and competed for Sudan while waiting for Britain, her new home, to grant her citizenship. That took 10 years, but she finally got it. Cuba still has plenty of talent — Yargeris Savigne faltered in Daegu but posted the top jump so far this year, while Mabel Gay barely missed the podium. The 2011 top performances list shows a distinct top four of Savigne, Colombian bronze medalist Caterine Ibargüen, Salahuda and silver medalist Olga Rypakova of Kazakhstan. Cuba, Kazakhstan, Ukraine

Shot put: The two athletes who dominated in 2010 did so again in 2011, but New Zealand’s Valerie Adams moved ahead of Belarus’s Nadzeya Ostapchuk. The top four in Worlds were the top four on the 2011 list, with bronze for the USA’s Jillian Camarena-Williams. New Zealand, Belarus, USA

Discus: Slight issue with the World Championships — Croatia’s Sandra Perkovic was serving a six-month suspension for an apparently accidental doping infraction. Didn’t think WADA allowed such short terms these days, even if aliens came down to Earth and injected athletes with modafinil, but that’s the story. In any case, China’s Li Yanfeng has the world title and three of the four top marks in the world (Perkovic has the other), and world runner-up Nadine Müller of Germany had the next three. Cuba’s Yarelis Barrios is next, at Worlds and on the top marks list. China, Croatia, Germany

Hammer: Germany’s Betty Heidler and Russia’s Tatyana Lysenko have soared past Poland’s Anita Wlodarczyk, with Heidler breaking Wlodarczyk’s world record and Lysenko winning the world title. China’s Wenxiu Zhang also is ahead of Wlodarczyk now. So Germany and Russia bump up a place in the projections, and Poland falls out. Germany, Russia, China

Javelin: The Czech Republic’s Barbora Špotáková still has the world record, but Russia’s Maria Abukumova wrested away the world championship with the best throw of the year. Those two, Germany’s Christina Obergfoll and South Africa’s Sunette Viljoen account for virtually all of the top throws of the year. Abukomova is younger, so we’ll project her ahead of Špotáková next year as well. Obergfoll slipped to fourth in Daegu but had more good throws this year than Viljoen. Russia, Czech Republic, Germany

Heptathlon: It’ll break British hearts to hear this, but Russia’s Tatyana Chernova’s win over Jessica Ennis in Daegu was no upset. Yes, Ennis would have a decent chance if she could even learn to throw a javelin, but that’s a lot to ask, and Chernova is solid all around. Germany’s Jennifer Oeser is a clear third. The USA’s Hyleas Fountain was in position for a medal, but the 800-meter closing run isn’t her best event, and she wound up unable to finish it in Daegu. Russia, Britain, Germany

One danger in projecting the 2012 Games, particularly in track and field (or athletics), is that smaller countries end up underrepresented. In some cases, their athletes aren’t participating in the Diamond League or other notable meets.

Most U.S. athletes were in action in the non-championship year, many establishing themselves as medal favorites. That might change after the 2011 World Championships.

It’s hard to say the USA will win 33 medals in athletics, which is what the projection shows for now. The past few Games for the USA: Beijing 23, Athens 25, Sydney 16, Atlanta 23, Barcelona 30, Seoul 26. So 33 would be a record for the post-boycott era.

But the USA, for better or for worse, is the big dog heading into every Olympics. Americans simply aren’t the underdog in this sport. We’ll see a few upsets that keep the USA’s medal count down.

So remember that the projection is designed to point out the favorites — the USA, Kenya, Russia, Jamaica and a resurgent Germany.

If you missed the event-by-event projection, check out men’s running, women’s running and the field events.

BIG EVENTS
- U.S. Championships: June 23-26
- Diamond League: May to September
- World Championships, Aug. 27-Sept. 4, Daegu, South Korea

We’ve covered men’s and women’s running (and walking) events. Now we bring out the tape measure for the events you’ll see in great detail (long jump, high jump, shot put) and those you won’t (hammer throw).

ATHLETICS: Field events

Same three sources for 2010 performances: the ever-handy list of top performances, this terrific chart of Diamond League performances and the Diamond League site’s event recaps.

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