Category Archives: medal projections

2016 medal projections: Handball (men’s)

The World Championships are all over bar the shouting. And people are shouting about Qatar — the country you know as the dubiously selected FIFA World Cup host in 2022 but now known as the country that bought a bunch of ringers … Conti...

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Medal projection fever: Events that matter in 2015

Ten days until the men’s handball World Championships! That’s the first of many events that will feed into the 2016 medal projections this year. By the end of the year, I’ll have every Rio event projected. Even SuperBacteria Sailin...

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Medal projections: Stats vs. subjectivity

Can we really come up with a statistical model for projecting Olympic medals? I’ve often joked that I want to be the Nate Silver of Olympic medal projections. But Nate knows a lot more about stats than I do — … Continue reading &ra...

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Olympic medals: The host-nation bounce is real

Olympic stats wizard Bill Mallon has quantified the host-nation bounce, showing that the country that last hosted the Olympics can typically expect to win roughly 70% of the medals it won at home. The genius of this analysis is that … Continue...

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2014 medal projections: Some excruciating details

How did the Olympic results compare with all the things we could use to predict them? Glad you asked: And this: Basically, I’m comparing three different types of results: 1. Majors: How skiers fared in the last Olympics and the last two &hell...

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Where the Olympic medals came from and went

The biggest differences between the Sochi medal projections and the Sochi medal count were: USA – Speedskating: Projected 7, got 0. In the other direction, there’s sliding sports: Projected 3, got 7. Norway – Cross-country skiing: P...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 23

The 50k cross-country race turned into a microcosm of the Olympics — a big pack going around most of the way, then Russia blasting away from everyone at the end. For the last couple of days, we’ve figured no country … Continue read...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 22

Unless Alexander Zubkov crashes on his home track and Norway sweeps the 50k cross-country race on Sunday, Russia will be the first host country to finish atop the medal count since … Norway, in 1994. If you prefer following gold … Contin...

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