Category Archives: medal projections

Medal projections: Stats vs. subjectivity

Can we really come up with a statistical model for projecting Olympic medals? I’ve often joked that I want to be the Nate Silver of Olympic medal projections. But Nate knows a lot more about stats than I do — … Continue reading &ra...

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Olympic medals: The host-nation bounce is real

Olympic stats wizard Bill Mallon has quantified the host-nation bounce, showing that the country that last hosted the Olympics can typically expect to win roughly 70% of the medals it won at home. The genius of this analysis is that … Continue...

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2014 medal projections: Some excruciating details

How did the Olympic results compare with all the things we could use to predict them? Glad you asked: And this: Basically, I’m comparing three different types of results: 1.¬†Majors:¬†How skiers fared in the last Olympics and the last two &hell...

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Where the Olympic medals came from and went

The biggest differences between the Sochi medal projections and the Sochi medal count were: USA – Speedskating: Projected 7, got 0. In the other direction, there’s sliding sports: Projected 3, got 7. Norway – Cross-country skiing: P...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 23

The 50k cross-country race turned into a microcosm of the Olympics — a big pack going around most of the way, then Russia blasting away from everyone at the end. For the last couple of days, we’ve figured no country … Continue read...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 22

Unless Alexander Zubkov crashes on his home track and Norway sweeps the 50k cross-country race on Sunday, Russia will be the first host country to finish atop the medal count since … Norway, in 1994. If you prefer following gold … Contin...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 21

Justin Reiter, a nation’s hopes are in your hands. Who? He’s a snowboarder who does parallel events, which we in the USA don’t follow or fund to the same extent we follow and fund halfpipe, slopestyle and various X Games-ish &hellip...

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Best/worst, Sochi medal projections vs. reality: Feb. 19

All in the family today, with unique pairs of siblings and spouses in action: - Siblings Anatasiya Kuzmina (Slovakia) and Anton Shipulin (Russia) competed against each other in the first Olympic biathlon mixed relay, and their teams finished 0.3 seco...

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