2012 medal projection update: Shooting

At last, we’re getting to the sports in which the original picks were done after the most recent World Championships. So we might not change very much, but we’ll peek at the world rankings and then make sure the shooters in question are actually going to London.

Ready … aim ….

MEN’S RIFLE

50m prone: Top spot still belongs to Belarus’ Sergei Martynov. China’s Weiyi Wang has moved up to second, with Italy’s Marco de Nicolo third. Then Cyril Graff, the first of two top-eight Frenchmen, and Americans Michael McPhail and Eric Uptagrafft. Double medalist (2004 gold, 2008 silver) Matt Emmons is once again going to the Games in two events, but this isn’t one of them. We’re leaving the projection as is: Belarus, USA, France

50m three-position: World champion Peter Sidi of Hungary has slid all the way to 10th in the rankings, and the other two we picked here have fallen even farther. The top three: Italy’s Niccolo Campriani (fifth at Worlds), Serbia’s Nemanja Mirosavljev (third at Worlds), the USA’s Jason Parker. Add Emmons, who has had bizarre misfortune in this event, and the USA has two solid medal contenders. Projection was HUN-KOR-CHN; now Italy, Hungary, USA

10m air rifle: This is Campriani’s big event. He convincingly won the world title and leads the rankings. Sidi was second at Worlds and has slid to ninth in the rankings. Emmons isn’t the top 10 but made the world final; Jonathan Hall was farther down the list. We’ll stick with Italy, Hungary, China

WOMEN’S RIFLE

50m three-position: Silver medalist Katy Emmons, still shooting for the Czech Republic after marrying Matt, missed some time during this Olympic cycle to have a baby but still ranks fifth. The top three in the rankings, though, have some serious credentials: Germans Barbara (Lechner) Engleder and Sonja Pfeilschifter were 1-2 at Worlds, and China’s Du Li won the 2008 gold. For the USA, Jamie (Beyerle) Gray has slipped out of the top 10. She’s joined by 21-year-old Amanda Furrer. Gray was fifth in this event in Beijing. Was USA-GER-CHN; now Germany, Germany, China

10m air rifle: Emmons won this event in 2008 and is apparently getting back into form, shooting a perfect 400 in qualifications on her way to winning a World Cup in Milan this year. She’s third in the rankings behind China’s Yi Siling and Pfeilschifter. Coincidentally, the rankings now match our original projections, but there’s a hitch – Pfeilschifter isn’t competing in this event. Fellow German Beate Gauss, like Siling and Emmons, has shot a 400 in the Olympic qualifying cycle, so maybe we don’t need to change much. Once again, the U.S. squad is Gray and a 21-year-old, Sarah Scherer. Was CHN-GER-CZE; now China, Czech Republic, Germany

MEN’S PISTOL

50m pistol: Japanese world champion Tomoyuki Matsuda has given up his lead in the rankings to Serbia’s Damir Mikec, while Olympic champion Jong-Oh Jin (South Korea) is third despite a woeful showing at Worlds. (We’d worry about Ji, but he hadn’t won both pistol events at this year’s World Cup stop in Munich.) China’s Zhang Tian is close behind in fourth. The USA’s Daryl Szarenski, one of those rare Olympic athletes older than your faithful medal projector/blogger, is made the final at Worlds.  He’s 20 years older than teammate Nick Mowrer. Was JPN-KOR-ITA; now Japan, South Korea, Serbia

10m air pistol: Matsuda won this world title, too, but he’s nowhere to be found in the top 10. If you’re looking for guys with the consistency to have high rankings and a place in the final at Worlds, you’ll need Jin (third at Worlds, ranked second) and Turkey’s Yusuf Dikec (fifth at Worlds, ranked third). China’s Tan Zongliang leads the rankings. Serbia has Mikec and world runner-up Andrija Zlatic. Was SRB-JPN-KOR; now South Korea, Turkey, Serbia

25m rapid-fire pistol: Russia’s Alexei Klimov is still the big, er, gun here, leading the rankings and holding the world title. Germany’s Christian Reitz was fifth at Worlds behind two Russians and two Chinese shooters, but he’s second in the rankings. Then we have China’s Zhang Jian, runner-up at Worlds and third in the rankings. China’s second spot went to fourth-ranked Ding Feng, not world championship third-place finisher Li Yuehong. The USA sends 40-something Emil Milev, ranked seventh, and Keith Sanderson. Was GER-RUS-CHN; now Russia, Germany, China

WOMEN’S PISTOL

25m pistol: Russia’s Kira Klimova won the world title and disappeared from the top 10. In fact, she’s not on the Russian team, and neither of her replacements is in the top 10. Runner-up Zorana Arunovic (Serbia) is headed to London but isn’t in the top 10. The third-place finisher in 2010, the Czech Republic’s Lenka Marushkova, is a different story — she’s ranked first. Fifth-place Sonia Franquet (Spain) is ranked 10th. Ukraine’s Olena Kostevych just missed the Worlds final and has climbed to fourth in the rankings. Then there’s China’s Ying Chen, who won Worlds in 2006 and the Olympics in 2008 and doesn’t seem to have competed in 2010. But she’s back this year and won in Munich. Good enough. The USA’s rep is Sandra Uptagrafft. Was CHN-RUS-CZE; now China, Czech Republic, Spain

10m air pistol: World champion Zorona Arunovic (Serbia) hasn’t slipped far — she’s ranked third behind Kostevych and Chinease Taipei’s Tien Chia Chen. Tian, though, was 58th at Worlds. Australia’s Lalita Yauhleuskaya, runner-up at Worlds, also has stayed in the top five. Belarus’ Viktoria Chaika, who lost second to the Australian in a shoot-off, is still in the top 10. The USA’s Sandra Uptagrafft made the Worlds final but hasn’t done that in a World Cup. Was SRB-UKR-BLR; now Serbia, Ukraine, Australia

MEN’S SHOTGUN

Trap: World runner-up Alexey Alipov of Russia leads the rankings. World champion Alberto Fernandez of Spain has a World Cup win in 2011 but not many other good results. Neither has the Czech Republic’s Jiri Liptak, third in 2010. At last, fourth-place Giovanni Pellielo (Italy, also the Beijing silver medalist) has stayed in the top 10, while countryman Massimo Fabbrizi is second and is the only man in the Olympic field with the magic 125 qualifying score. Fifth through eighth place from the 2010 Worlds? Not even going to London. Neither are any Americans. Was RUS-ESP-CZE; now Russia, Italy, Italy

Double trap: A chance — maybe a small one, but enough to consider — of two U.S. medals here. Glenn Eller is the defending Olympic champion and is ranked seventh. Joshua Richmond, who won the world title with a perfect 50 in the final, is ranked first. Russia counters with world runner-up Vasily Mosin and third-ranked Vitaly Fokeev. Britain’s breakout star is second-ranked Peter Robert Russell Wilson, not to be confused with the Prince of Wales, Charles Philip Arthur George. But the top four in the rankings are close, and that includes Malta’s medal contender, William Chetcuti. Was USA-RUS-IND; now USA, Russia, Britain

Skeet: The USA’s Vincent Hancock won gold in 2008 and took some time off in the Olympic cycle. He has a fourth-place World Cup finish this year in London. World champion Valeriy Shomin of Russia is ranked second behind Norwegian silver medalist Tore Brovold, who was 33rd at Worlds. Cyprus finished 3-4 in Worlds, and Georgios Achilleos (presumably well-heeled?) holds third in the rankings. Frank Thompson joins Hancock on the U.S. team. We may reach off the board a bit for the bronze medal — France’s Anthony Terras was eighth in Worlds, holds eighth in the rankings and shot a 125 qualification earlier this year. Or not, seeing some of his other results. Was NOR-CYP-USA; now Russia, Cyprus, Norway

WOMEN’S SHOTGUN

Trap: World champ Zuzana Štefečeková (Slovakia) is ranked third now behind Spain’s Fatima Galvez and Russia’s Elena Tkach, the 2002 world champion. They have huge gaps between their point totals, with another big drop to Britain’s Abbey Burton and American bronze medalist Corey Cogdell. Kim Rhode, who keeps winning medals even after her beloved double trap was discontinued in the Olympics, joins Cogdell on the team — the USA is the only country with two shooters in this event. Was SVK-ITA-SMR; now Slovakia, Spain, USA

Skeet: Rhode has made this her event. She has the world title and the top world ranking. Slovakia’s Danka Bartekova, third at Worlds, is a close second in the rankings. Then it’s China’s Wei Ning, the world runner-up. Not much reason to change the projections: USA, China, Slovakia

 

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2 Responses to 2012 medal projection update: Shooting

  1. Tony says:

    Hi Beau,

    I just wanted to thank you for this article. I’m having a game (no money involved, just passion for OG) with my friends based on London 2012 and I had no idea how to make my projections about shooting. I hope you’be right :D :D

  2. Beau Dure says:

    I hope so, too, but now I wonder if I should write a disclaimer that I’m not responsible for any losses!

    Good luck with your game.

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